Trend Structure
Primarily based on SPY and QQQ relative to 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, trend alignment, and recent price action. Measures whether established trend structure remains intact rather than single-day moves.
Current MarketMarket data through 2026-09-04 close
What’s happening in the market — and what it means for investors.
Using price action, market breadth, rates, volatility, and sector rotation to track key evidence supporting the current market view.
01. Market Health
Market Pulse
How healthy is the market beneath the headline indexes?
Market data through: 2026-09-04 close
Current State
63.3/ 100
Mixed↑ +4.1vs. prev session
Last 7 Trading Sessions
Current Read
Overall market conditions remain mixed: trend structure remains strong and volatility remains low. However, risk appetite remains cautious, though it improved from the previous session, the rate environment remains restrictive, and stock participation remains narrow, limiting overall market momentum.
Current score 63.3
StressedWeakNeutralConstructiveStrong
Supporting Drivers
- Trend Structure
- Strong
- Market Participation
- Narrow
- Volatility
- Calm
- Risk Appetite
- Cautious
- Macro Pressure
- Elevated pressure
Are major indices maintaining healthy trend structure?
How many stocks are participating?
Is the market calm or nervous?
How willing are investors to take risk?
Is the rate environment supportive for stocks?
💡 User GuideWhat is Market Pulse, and how should I read it?
What is Market Pulse?
Market Pulse is a daily 0–100 market-health score combining trend structure, participation, volatility, risk appetite and the rate environment. A higher score describes a healthier current environment. Historically, higher scores have generally been associated with lower volatility and drawdown risk over roughly the following week; the score is not a probability of gains, a forecast of return size or a trading signal.
What does it measure?
Market Participation
Measures how many S&P 500 constituents are above their 20-day moving average.
Volatility
Primarily based on the current VIX level and its recent direction.
Risk Appetite
Compares risk-oriented assets such as small caps, growth and semiconductors with the broad market.
Macro Pressure
The current model primarily uses long-term Treasury yields as a proxy for rate pressure on equities.
How should I read the five levels?
Stressed
0–29Market conditions are under significant pressure, with greater short-term volatility and drawdown risk.
Weak
30–44The market remains under noticeable pressure and short-term risk is generally above normal.
Neutral
45–64Positive and negative forces are mixed, with no clear overall tilt.
Constructive
65–79The overall environment is relatively healthy, with generally lower short-term volatility and drawdown risk.
Strong
80–100The overall market environment is very healthy and stable.
Important: Trend Structure does not measure single-day moves; it evaluates whether major indices maintain established multi-period trend structure. A single up or down day does not imply a trend reversal. Constructive or Strong describes a healthier current environment and does not forecast guaranteed future gains.
Case Study
Why This Score Matters
See how Market Pulse captured deteriorating market conditions in Q4 2018 while SPY remained near its high and VIX was still calm.
Market Pulse combines trend structure, market participation, volatility, risk appetite and macro conditions to measure short-term market health. Historical testing shows that higher scores have generally been associated with lower volatility and drawdown risk over roughly the following week. It is not a probability of market gains and does not predict future return size.
02
Current Market Focus
Only the developments that materially affect the current market view.
August Payrolls Surge 162k to Spark Rate Repricing as 2-Year Yield Jumps to 4.37%
- What Happened
- U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 162k, well above consensus expectations of ~56k, while the unemployment rate printed at 4.1%. The robust print triggered a sharp repricing of Fed rate cuts, driving the 2-year Treasury yield up 15 bps to 4.37% and benchmark 10-year yields to 4.78%.
- Why It Matters
- Stronger employment eases recession anxieties but diminishes the urgency for aggressive September Fed easing, raising the discount-rate hurdle for equity valuations.
- What to Watch
- Watch next week's August CPI and PPI inflation reports to determine whether labor market durability feeds renewed price pressures.
Semiconductors Surge 3.4% as Chip Leadership Defends Major Technical Supports
- What Happened
- Semiconductors (SMH +3.4%) rallied decisively on robust memory and compute demand, led by surges in SNDK (+11.9%) and MU (+6.1%). AI compute leaders helped QQQ (-0.19%) and SPY (-0.38%) defend their 20-day moving average supports despite rising interest rates.
- Why It Matters
- Decisive strength in semiconductor leaders acted as a market anchor, demonstrating that institutional liquidity remains committed to quality growth assets rather than executing broad risk-off liquidations.
- What to Watch
- Monitor whether semiconductor strength can broaden into enterprise software and other tech verticals next week.
Rising Yields Restrain Market Breadth as 20-Day Participation Cools to 35.2%
- What Happened
- Pressured by climbing Treasury yields, the share of S&P 500 constituents above their 20-day moving averages retreated from 45.7% to 35.2% (177 stocks), while 5-day short-term breadth cooled from 58.4% to 49.3% (248 stocks). Equal-weight RSP (-0.77%) lagged cap-weighted indexes.
- Why It Matters
- Narrowing breadth indicates that Thursday's rebound has not yet evolved into an all-market expansion, concentrating capital in resilient mega-caps while rate-sensitive cyclicals and utilities face pressure.
- What to Watch
- Track whether 20-day breadth stabilizes near the 35% support level and if equal-weight benchmarks begin narrowing their performance divergence.
03
Market Structure Map
Which important areas rose or fell in the latest completed session. Block size reflects each theme’s relative importance in the market-monitoring framework.
Latest session vs. previous completed session
Data as of 2026-09-04 close
StrengtheningStableWeakening
Core Investor Themes
Artificial Intelligence
Strong
+2.53%BAI
Semiconductors
Strong
+2.61%SMH
Mega-Cap Tech
Stable
+0.18%QQQ
Financials
Weakening
-0.79%XLF
Industrials
Stable
+0.41%XLI
Defense
Stable
-0.16%ITA
Energy
Weakening
-0.87%XLE
Consumer
Weakening
-1.33%XLY
Market Structure
Broad Market
Stable
-0.39%SPY
Equal Weight
Stable
-0.48%RSP
Small Caps
Stable
+0.28%IWM
Risk / Cross-Asset Signals
Bitcoin
Weakening
-1.97%BTC-USD
Gold
Weakening
-0.84%GLD
Treasury
Stable
+0.17%TLT
VIX
Volatility risk rising
+1.47%^VIX
Equal weight reduces mega-cap dominance and helps show whether strength extends across more companies.
VIX measures expected S&P 500 volatility over roughly the next 30 days and is often called the fear gauge.
Current Read
Semiconductors led the latest completed session, while Consumer was relatively weaker. Expected volatility rose, leaving cross-asset signals more cautious.
Percentages show the close-to-close change from the previous completed trading session. Status labels summarize the magnitude and direction of the daily move and do not predict future performance. Block size reflects each theme’s relative importance in the market-monitoring framework.
How are the numbers and states calculated?
Daily return equals the current completed-session close divided by the previous completed-session close, minus 1. Weekends and market holidays do not create observations.
Fixed daily bands: ≥+2% is Strong; +0.5% to below +2% is Strengthening; above -0.5% and below +0.5% is Stable; -2% to -0.5% is Weakening; and ≤-2% is Weak. Classification uses the unrounded value.
Arrow & volatility interpretation: The arrow strictly represents the mathematical direction of the displayed metric (↑ for rise, ↓ for fall). A rising VIX (↑) indicates increasing volatility risk, while a falling VIX (↓) indicates easing volatility risk. Artificial Intelligence continues to use BAI as its representative asset.
04
Market Participation
How broadly is the market participating in the current trend?
Primary: % of S&P 500 constituents above 20DMA · Short-term: % above 5DMA
20-Day Market Participation
35.2%
Weak
177 / 503
S&P 500 constituents above 20-day moving average
-10.5 pts vs. previous session
Short-term breadth (5D): 49.3% ↓ 9.1 ptsShort-term mixed
20-Day Breadth · Last 7 Sessions
20D structure declined clearly
7-session change: -9.1 pts
Current Read
20-day breadth remains weak, while 5-day participation is neutral. Short-term conditions show stabilization, but structural recovery requires more constituents reclaiming 20-day averages.
20DMA measures intermediate market structure; 5DMA reflects short-term market temperature.
5D × 20D
Breadth State Map
Displays internal participation regime and recent trajectory · Descriptive state, not a directional forecast
Current:Internal Pressure
📍 Maintained "Internal Pressure" over the last 7 sessions7 consecutive sessions
📅 Sep 4Latest Close
20D: 35.2%
5D: 49.3%
Internal Pressure
💡 State InterpretationCurrent State: Internal Pressure
Both 20-day and 5-day participation are currently below 50%, indicating weaker participation across both horizons. The 50% lines are descriptive reference points, not predictive thresholds.
Note: The 50% reference lines describe whether more or fewer than half of tracked constituents trade above their moving averages. They are descriptive reference points, not predictive thresholds. The State Map observes internal participation and trajectory; it does not replace the medium-term trend framework.
Data as of: 2026-09-04 close
503 valid · 0 missing
Market Participation uses the share of valid S&P 500 constituents above their own 20-day simple moving average (SMA20) as the primary structural indicator, accompanied by the 5-day average (SMA5) as a secondary short-term temperature gauge. Incomplete histories are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The trend chart displays the 20-day breadth series across the latest 7 sessions. 20-day breadth: Healthy ≥60%, Mixed 45%–60%, Weak <45%; 5-day breadth: Strong ≥60%, Mixed 45%–60%, Weak <45%. All breadth changes are expressed in percentage points (pts). This is a descriptive measure of internal participation, not a forward price forecast.
05
How Should We Read the Latest Session?
What did the market do, and which factors best explain the reaction?
Payrolls Surge Fuels Rate Repricing as Semiconductor Strength Defends Support
- Market Action
- On September 4, the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,718.60, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.29%, the Dow fell 0.51% and the Russell 2000 rose 0.25%. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.78%, the 2-year yield surged 15 bps to 4.37%, and VIX ticked up to 14.53. 177 S&P 500 constituents traded above their 20-day averages (20-day breadth at 35.2%), while 5-day short-term breadth settled to 49.3% (248 stocks above their 5-day lines).
- How to Read It
- Friday's session absorbed a sharp interest-rate repricing following the blowout August jobs report. A 15 bp jump in the 2-year Treasury yield raised discount-rate hurdles; however, equity markets exhibited notable resilience. Surging semiconductor leaders (SMH +3.4%) anchored risk appetite, allowing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to absorb mild pullbacks while firmly defending their 20-day moving average supports. VIX remained subdued at 14.53, confirming the absence of systemic liquidations. Market internals reflected the macro headwinds as 20-day breadth moderated to 35.2% and 5-day breadth cooled to 49.3%, leaving Market Pulse closing at 63.3 in constructive neutral territory ahead of next week's inflation updates.
- What to Watch
- Watch whether major indexes hold firm at 20-day moving average supports and how Treasury yields behave around 4.80% next week.
06
What to Watch Next
Not a forecast—the evidence that could materially change the current view.
U.S. Labor Day Holiday (U.S. Markets Closed)
MediumMonday, September 7 · All Day
U.S. equity markets are closed for the federal holiday; regular trading resumes Tuesday, September 8.
U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI)
HighThursday, September 10 · 8:30 a.m. ET
Gauges wholesale price trends and upstream inflation pass-through ahead of consumer inflation releases.
U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI)
HighFriday, September 11 · 8:30 a.m. ET
The pivotal consumer inflation benchmark before the September FOMC meeting, shaping Fed policy expectations.
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