Inflation
Recently easing
↓ July CPI eased further
Headline CPI was 3.4% and core CPI 2.5% in July; inflation pressures continued to soften.
Data through：July 2026
U.S. Economic Dashboard
Economic Trends Overview
Track changes in U.S. inflation, employment, economic growth, and interest-rate conditions through official data.
Page last updated：August 29, 2026
Primary sources: BLS, BEA, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Reserve System
Market Glance organizes and visualizes publicly released official data.
Economic status overview
Employment
Cooling gradually
↓ Payrolls fell in July
Unemployment was 4.1% and payrolls changed by -23K in July; initial claims held near 200K.
Data through：July 2026
Growth
Solid expansion
↑ Revised higher in Q2
Real GDP grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2 (second estimate), confirming economic resilience.
Data through：Q2 2026
Rates
Restrictive
↑ Yields pushed higher
The 2-year yield was 4.34% and the 10-year 4.73%; spread was 0.39%, with financing costs elevated.
Data through：August 28, 2026
Economic context
Current Economic Picture
The U.S. economy demonstrated solid resilience into the summer, with second-quarter real GDP revised upward to a 3.0% annualized rate. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY in July while core CPI cooled to 2.5%, showing no immediate secondary inflation spike. However, nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 in July with prior-month downward revisions, signaling normalizing labor demand. Initial jobless claims remained steady near 200,000, pointing away from broad-based layoffs. Following Jackson Hole policy remarks, the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34% and the 10-year yield held near 4.73%, keeping financial conditions restrictive ahead of the August jobs report.
Growth: Q2 GDP revised to 3.0%Inflation: July CPI easingEmployment: Demand normalizingPolicy: Restrictive rate stance
Official data trends
Core Economic Trends
Charts read a locally cached official-data snapshot; visitors do not make requests to external data services.
Headline and Core CPI Inflation
Tracks 12-month changes in consumer prices; core CPI excludes food and energy.
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Headline CPI YoYCore CPI YoY
- Latest CPI
- 3.4%
- Previous
- 3.5%
- Latest core CPI
- 2.5%
- 3-month change
- -0.4 pp
Trend assessment
Headline CPI (3.4%) and core CPI (2.5%) eased further in July with no secondary inflation spike; however, core inflation remains above 2%, indicating orderly cooling rather than complete mission accomplishment.
Economic context
Core inflation persistence remains relevant for real rates, household purchasing power, and policy decisions.
U.S. Unemployment Rate
The share of the labor force that is actively seeking work but not employed.
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Unemployment rate
- Latest
- 4.1%
- Previous
- 4.2%
- 3-month change
- -0.2 pp
- 12-month change
- 0.0 pp
Trend assessment
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in July, though payrolls contracted by 23,000 with prior-month downward revisions totaling 103,000. Labor demand has cooled toward a more balanced state, while low jobless claims suggest no widespread layoffs.
Economic context
The unemployment rate is most informative when read alongside payroll growth, claims, and wages.
Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Payrolls
Calculated from the monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment, in thousands of jobs.
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Payroll change
- Latest month
- -23K
- 3-month average
- 20K
- 6-month average
- 44K
- Previous
- 20K
Trend assessment
Payrolls contracted by 23,000 in July, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The 3-month average slowed to 20,000, pointing to normalizing hiring pace, though monthly figures remain subject to revision.
Economic context
Persistent cooling can signal softer labor demand, but one month does not establish an employment recession.
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly initial claims and the four-week moving average, in thousands.
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Initial claims4-week average
- Latest
- 203K
- 4-week average
- 205.5K
- Weekly change
- -4K
- Week ended
- August 22, 2026
Trend assessment
Initial jobless claims stood at 203,000 for the week ended August 22, with the 4-week average holding low at 205.5K. The series continues to indicate controlled layoff activity and a balanced labor market.
Economic context
Weekly readings are volatile; the four-week average generally provides a clearer directional signal.
Real GDP, Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter Growth
Shows the annualized change from the previous quarter, not year-over-year growth.
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Real GDP annualized QoQ
- Latest quarter
- 3.0%
- Previous quarter
- 2.1%
- Change
- 0.9 pp
- Estimate stage
- Second estimate
Trend assessment
Second-quarter real GDP was upwardly revised to a 3.0% annualized rate in the second estimate, accelerating from 2.1% in Q1 and confirming robust consumer and investment fundamentals.
Economic context
Second-estimate GDP integrates more comprehensive business and consumption data, offering a clearer growth signal.
2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields
Daily U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yields across short and long maturities.
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2-year10-year
- Latest 2-year
- 4.34%
- Latest 10-year
- 4.73%
- 2-year monthly change
- 0.09 pp
- 10-year monthly change
- 0.03 pp
Trend assessment
As of the August 28 close, the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.73%, reflecting hawkish rate repricing following Jackson Hole; yields remain elevated, keeping financial conditions restrictive.
Economic context
Higher yields increase discount rates for growth equities and elevate corporate borrowing costs, requiring cross-asset context.
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Spread
Calculated as the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield; the zero line identifies inversion.
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10Y−2Y spread
- Latest spread
- 0.39%
- Curve status
- Positive slope
- Monthly change
- -0.06 pp
- Calculated for
- August 28, 2026
Trend assessment
The 10Y−2Y yield spread stood at +0.39%, maintaining a positive slope. While the earlier yield curve inversion has resolved, high long-term yields continue to constrain growth-stock valuations and borrowing costs.
Economic context
The curve is a useful cycle indicator, but neither inversion nor un-inversion means a recession must occur immediately.
Weekly releases
Key Economic Releases This Week
High-impact releases remain available as supporting context. All times are Eastern Time (ET).
| Date | Release | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, August | 46.8 | 47.5 | Pending | Upcoming |
| Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, August | 51.4 | 51.5 | Pending | Upcoming |
| Friday, September 4, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET | Nonfarm Payrolls, August | -23K | 160K | Pending | Upcoming |
| Friday, September 4, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET | Unemployment Rate, August | 4.1% | 4.2% | Pending | Upcoming |
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